8 content pages, 7 appendix and references. 8 figures. Source code at: this https URL ; inference code at this https URL
Despite over three hundred years of effort, no solutions exist for predicting when a general planetary configuration will become unstable. We introduce a deep learning architecture to push forward this problem for compact systems. While current machine learning algorithms in this area rely on scientist-derived instability metrics, our new technique learns its own metrics from scratch, enabled by a novel internal structure inspired from dynamics theory. Our Bayesian neural network model can accurately predict not only if, but also when a compact planetary system with three or more planets will go unstable. Our model, trained directly from short N-body time series of raw orbital elements, is more than two orders of magnitude more accurate at predicting instability times than analytical estimators, while also reducing the bias of existing machine learning algorithms by nearly a factor of three. Despite being trained on compact resonant and near-resonant three-planet configurations, the model demonstrates robust generalization to both non-resonant and higher multiplicity configurations, in the latter case outperforming models fit to that specific set of integrations. The model computes instability estimates up to five orders of magnitude faster than a numerical integrator, and unlike previous efforts provides confidence intervals on its predictions. Our inference model is publicly available in the SPOCK package, with training code open-sourced.
14 pages, 6 figures, 1 table
Submitted to MNRAS
14 pages, 14 figures, 1 table. Resubmitted to A&A after a positive referee report
10 pages, 10 figures. Accepted for publication in MNRAS
Accepted for publication in MNRAS
Accepted for publication in ApJ. 19 pages, 6 figures
11 pages text, 4 figures, 4 tables (2 in-text, 2 in 11-page appendix), accepted for publication in the Astronomical Journal
Accepted for publication in MNRAS; 20 pages, 15 figures
18 pages (including two short appendices), 6 Fgiures in main paper, accepted for publication in MNRAS
19 pages, 8 figures, 1 table; accepted for publication in ApJ
14 pages (with references), 8 figures
42 pages, 7 figures, accepted for publication in the Journal of Plasma Physics
22 pages, 12 figures. Accepted for publication in ApJ
41 pages, 16 figures, 7 tables
19 pages, 181 references, submitted to Frontiers in Astronomy and Space Sciences (Fundamental Astronomy Section)
19 pages, 11 figures
15 pages, 8 figures
30 pages, 9 figures, Accepted for publication in AJ
Letter accepted for publication in A&A
8 pages, 6 figures, 6 tables
12 pages, 10 figures, tables 2
Accepted for publication in MNRAS. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:2009.09812
under review at AAS Journals; community comments and input welcome!
Planetary Science Journal, In Press
Accepted to ApJ Letters
Accepted for publication in Solar Physics
11 pages, 9 figures, 4 tables, accepted by Astronomy & Astrophysics
30 pages, 5 tables, 18 figures; accepted for publication in RAA
14 pages. 6 figures
16 pages , 15 figures
11 pages, 14 figures. Accepted for publication in MNRAS
33 pages,7 figures including 126 panels, 4 tables, accepted for publication in ApJS
Accepted for publication in Astronomy and Astrophysics, Dec 19, 2020
24 pages, plus 98 pages of supplementary material, submitted to A&A
15 pages; 10 figures; accepted for publication in Astronomy and Astrophysics
Accepted for publication in A&A. 13 pages, 7 figures, 2 tables
21 pages, 12 figures, 4 tables, A&A accepted
Accepted to MNRAS, 23 pages, 18 figures
18 pages, 12 figures; accepted in ApJ
Accepted for publication as an A&A Letter
19 pages, 5 Figures. Published on Life,2021, 11, 10
11 pages, 6 figures; Accepted for publication by ApJ
18 pages, 8 figures, ApJ, accepted Dec 29, 2020
Letter accepted for publication in A&A
ApJ, submitted
19 pages, 18 figures, 2 tables
8 pages. Accepted in MNRAS
27 pages, 6 main text figures, 8 extended data figures, published in Nature Astronomy on 21 December 2020
18 pages, 5 tables, 16 Figures. Accepted for publication in the Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society
28 pages, 10 figures, 1 appendix. Accepted for publication in The Astronomical Journal
13 pages, 9 figures, 2 tables; accepted for publication in the Journal of Astrophysics and Astronomy
to be submitted to ApJL
10 pages, 10 figures
22 pages, 9 figures, 2 tables. Accepted by PSJ
Accepted for publication in A&A Letters
5 pages, 1 figure, accepted for publication in MNRAS Letters
25 pages, 12 figures, 4 tables, accepted for publication in Astronomy & Astrophysics
Accepted by Astronomical Journal
10 pages, 8 figures
13 pages, 7 figures; accepted to ApJ
4 pages, 3 figures; submitted for publication
23 pages, 24 figures
121 pages, 1 figure. Invited chapter for "Handbook of Gravitational Wave Astronomy" (Eds. C. Bambi, S. Katsanevas, and K. Kokkotas; Springer, Singapore, 2021)