Direct detection experiments require information about the local dark matter speed distribution to produce constraints on dark matter candidates, or infer their properties in the event of a discovery. In this paper, we analyze how the uncertainty in the dark matter speed distribution near the Sun is affected by baryonic feedback, halo-to-halo variance, and halo mass. To do so, we harness the statistical power of the new DREAMS Cold Dark Matter simulation suite, which is comprised of 1024 zoom-in Milky Way-mass halos with varied initial conditions as well as cosmological and astrophysical parameters. Applying a normalizing flows emulator to these simulations, we find that the uncertainty in the local DM speed distribution is dominated by halo-to-halo variance and, to a lesser extent, uncertainty in host halo mass. Uncertainties in supernova and black hole feedback (from the IllustrisTNG model in this case) are negligible in comparison. Using the DREAMS suite, we present a state-of-the-art prediction for the DM speed distribution in the Milky Way. Although the Standard Halo Model is contained within the uncertainty of this prediction, individual galaxies may have distributions that differ from it. Lastly, we apply our DREAMS results to the XENON1T experiment and demonstrate that the astrophysical uncertainties are comparable to the experimental ones, solidifying previous results in the literature obtained with a smaller sample of simulated Milky Way-mass halos.
Cosmology from weak gravitational lensing has been limited by astrophysical uncertainties in baryonic feedback and intrinsic alignments. By calibrating these effects using external data, we recover non-linear information, achieving a 2% constraint on the clustering amplitude, $S_8$, resulting in a factor of two improvement on the $\Lambda$CDM constraints relative to the fiducial Dark Energy Survey Year 3 model. The posterior, $S_8=0.832^{+0.013}_{-0.017}$, shifts by $1.5\sigma$ to higher values, in closer agreement with the cosmic microwave background result for the standard six-parameter $\Lambda$CDM cosmology. Our approach uses a star-forming 'blue' galaxy sample with intrinsic alignment model parameters calibrated by direct spectroscopic measurements, together with a baryonic feedback model informed by observations of X-ray gas fractions and kinematic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect profiles that span a wide range in halo mass and redshift. Our results provide a blueprint for next-generation surveys: leveraging galaxy properties to control intrinsic alignments and external gas probes to calibrate feedback, unlocking a substantial improvement in the precision of weak lensing surveys.
this https URL . The simulator \textsc{\texttt{Odisseo}} is available on GitHub at the following url: this https URL
2501.16292v2 , prepared for submission to the Open Journal of Astrophysics